AD Code

Thursday 22 March 2012

Nifty - 22 Mar 2012 - Bullish undertone

Bullish undertone to continue till Nifty trades above 5335.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty continued to search for direction in the morning. However, once the Bears failed to breach 5255 and the Bulls took out 5270 and 5325, there was a swift up-move with the Nifty closing at 5365. Two days ago we had also suggested that a bounce back was expected. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open soft, but the bullish undertone will prevail till 5335 is breached.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -38 to +32 Bear Power reduces from -103 to -84, indicating that though the Bulls have regained their lost ground, one cannot count out the Bears as yet. Bulls will have to surpass 5390 to maintain their winning streak, whereas the Bears will have to breach 5245, which seems a difficult task as of today.

2) The Nifty is now trading above its key EMAs and its DMAs, confirming the bullish undertone.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing upwards, again confirming the bullish sentiment.

Daily chart for Nifty as on 21 Mar 2012


4) In the above chart, the volumes have slightly increased in yesterday's rise on the Nifty. The MACD is still in the negative but is rising. The ADX is discarding any directional momentum in the market. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal. All this suggests that the market is range-bound with a bullish undertone.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5335, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5310 and a target of 5400. We will add to these long positions above 5430.

b) Around 5415, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5430 and a target of 5360. We will add to these short positions only below 5310.

c) We will wait out patiently till the Nifty drifts to the extremes of either 5335 or 5415 before taking up positions as mentioned above. Till then we will ignore the Nifty.

Happy Trading !!! 

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