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Friday 30 March 2012

Nifty - 30 Mar 2012 - Bears on the prowl

As a fresh series starts, it looks like the Bears are gaining momentum.

Yesterday, we were expecting either a Breakout or Breakdown. However, the market chose to give us none, and instead, gave us a NR7 day. A NR7 day, is a day with the Narrowest Range in the last 7 trading sessions. Usually, a big move is expected on the following day, and the same may unfold today.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -40 to -69 Bear Power rises from -107 to -127, indicating that the Bears are now gaining momentum and the Bulls are weakening. For today, the Bears need to breach 5120 to maintain their momentum, whereas the Bulls need to crossover the hump of 5252 in order to regain their lost territory.


2) The Nifty continues to trade below its key EMAs and below its 50 DMA. Yesterday, the Nifty took support at the 200DMA which is at 5150. A close below the 200DMA will charge up the bears.


3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone, and hence a bounce back by the Bulls cannot be ruled out.






4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased, indicating that a big move may be developing. The MACD continues in the negative and holds on to its sell signal. The ADX is also suggesting that a major trend is developing and is indicating that, the trend could be downwards, as the -ADX is much above the +ADX. The Parabolic SAR also is continuing with its sell signal.


5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.


a) Around 5210, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5255 and a target of 5150. We will add to these short positions below 5130.


b) Around 5130, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5100 and a target of 5200. We will add to these long positions above 5255.


Happy Trading !!!
  

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