AD Code

Monday 9 April 2012

Nifty - 09 Apr 2012 - Undercurrents of a big move

With the lull over the past week behind us now, the Nifty is poised for a big move.

As discussed in our last post, the lull continued on the Nifty, and the Nifty drifted listlessly within a 35 point range and ended up going nowhere. Today, the Nifty is likely to open with a small negative bias, and most likely would find a new short term trend within a couple of sessions from now.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +92 to +47 Bear Power increases from +58 to +13, indicating that the struggle for direction still continues. For today, the Bulls need to cross 5345 to get momentum going towards them, whereas the Bears need to breach below 5290 to set the momentum towards a downfall.

2) The Nifty is trading above its key EMAs and key DMAs, however it is just below its 50DMA which is at 5330.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that the Bears may get stronger.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have gone down significantly, while the Nifty has been almost stagnant, indicating lack of participation along with lack of direction. The MACD is now in the negative and is showing some signs of rising. The ADX is suggesting a trend less market with a slight bias towards the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under

a) Below 5305, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5325 and a target of 5255. We will add to these short positions only below 5230.

b) Above 5345, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5325 and a target of 5395. We will add to these long positions only above 5410.

Happy Trading !!! 

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