AD Code

Wednesday 25 April 2012

Nifty - 25 Apr 2012 - Bearishness creeps in

As the series nears expiry, Bearishness creeps into the Nifty.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty traded at the lower end of its trading range. It has been like that for almost the entire current series. Yesterday, we did suspect a mild bounce back, but the Bulls were not able to carry it any further than that. We should see some good follow up from the Bears now, else it will turn out to be a dull and drab series.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +43 to -29 Bear Power increases from -80 to -81, indicating that yesterday's rise in the Nifty could be deceptive as the Bulls have actually lost momentum. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5285 to regain their lost territory whereas the Bears need to breach below 5170 to maintain their momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs. The EMAs are clustered at the 5255 5270 zone which can act as a resistance to any up move. The 100 and 200 DMAs at 5125 5135 could provide support to any down move.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have just marginally increased with the small rise in the Nifty. The MACD is now pointing downwards, giving out a negative divergence. The ADX is still suggesting a trend less market with a slight bias towards the bears. The Parabolic SAR has now turned into a Sell Signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5240, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5275 and a target of 5195. We will add to these short positions below 5165 only.

b) Around 5190, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5165 and a target of 5225. We will add to these long positions above 5275 only.

Happy Trading !!! 

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