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Friday 4 May 2012

Nifty - 04 May 2012 - Testing range lows

Nifty is likely to test the range lows of 5130. A bounce back is likely from those levels.

Yesterday, we had suggested, it could be a day of opportunities on both sides. As suggested, the Nifty once took support at 5190, and bounced back about 30 points from there. However, the Bulls were not able to overcome the day's high of 5217 and that brought up the Bear run once again and the Nifty closed just below 5190. Today, that Bear run is likely to continue. It may be helped with a gap down opening. The much tinkered support at 5130 will be tested today.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +42 to -14 Bear Power increases from -11 to -50, indicating that the Bulls have given away their hard earned safety within just two sessions, and that should encourage the Bears even more. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5225 to return back to safety, whereas the Bears need to breach 5170 to maintain their downward momentum.

2) The Nifty is now trading below its key EMAs which are inversely stacked and are pointing downwards, indicating a strong downward momentum developing.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have started to increase with the fall in the Nifty indicating sustenance of the down move as of now. The MACD continues in the negative, but is not falling, indicating that the Bulls need not be counted out as yet. The ADX is also giving out a similar signal of indecision on the direction to the market. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its sell signal.

5) The is a distinct possibility of a bullish engulf formation on the daily charts by EOD today. 

6) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5140, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5120 and a target of 5200. We will add to these long positions only above 5225.

b) Around 5205, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5220 and a target of 5150. We will add to these short positions only below 5120.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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