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Monday 14 May 2012

Nifty - 14 May 2012 - Sell on rally continues

After breaking weakened support levels, it will be sell on rise as of now.

On Friday, we had suggested that "the supports were weakening", and we saw the Nifty open with a 45 point negative gap, then move further down to 4906 before closing at 4929, well below the supports of 4950. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open flat and trade in a narrow range with a negative bias.

1) The Elder Ray readings : The Bull Power reduces from -76 to -113 Bear Power increases from -165 to -183, indicating that the Bulls are weakening much faster than the Bears are strengthening, and hence any rallies should be used to create fresh short positions. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5090 to return back to their zone, whereas the Bears need to breach 4895 to maintain their downward momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are well and truly deep into the oversold zone, indicating a bounce back could be round the corner.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased in Friday's trading session, indicating that the Bears might be pausing. The MACD is continuing to fall away. The ADX is giving out a signal of a strengthening downtrend. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell Signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 4970, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4995 and a target of 4890. We will add to these short positions only below 4865.

b) Around 4875, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4865 and a target of 4945. We will add to these long positions only above 4995.

Happy Trading !!! 

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