AD Code

Friday 18 May 2012

Nifty - 18 May 2012 - Gap down to aid bears

The bearish move likely to get a fillip aided by weak global cues.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the Whipsaw enter into the Nifty, with the Nifty opening with a nice little gap up, then rising up and then giving away almost all the gains, before a little rally that closed the Nifty with a minor gain. Today, given the global turmoil, the Nifty is likely to open with a gap down and stay down for most of the trading session.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -137 to -76 Bear Power reduces from -182 to -148, indicating that the Bears are still driving the Nifty, in-spite of valiant efforts by the Bulls to fight back. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4980 to return back into their zone, whereas the Bears need to breach below 4830 to retain their downward momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs. Look out for a cross over of 50 and 100 DMAs within the next few trading sessions, which if happens might drag the Nifty to even lower levels, where the Bears will get exhausted for a while.

3) The stochastics are well and truly in the deep oversold zone. However, in a strongly trending market as this one, we look at it as a confirmatory signal rather than as a reversal signal.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained dull in the minor rise for the Nifty, making the rise unsustainable indicatively. The MACD continues to fall down. The ADX is also suggesting a bias towards the bearish down move. The Parabolic SAR is still holding onto its sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 4880, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4905 and a target of 4780. We will add to these short positions only below 4760.

b) Above 4770, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4835 and above that 4880. We will add to these long positions only above 4905.

Happy Trading !!! 

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