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Monday 4 June 2012

Nifty - 04 Jun 2012 - Bearish mood to persist

Amidst global turmoil, the Nifty may open gap down and bearish mood may prolong.

As discussed on Friday, there were clear "Bearish Technical Signals", which made the Nifty to open with a mild down gap, then close the gap in the morning trade and then slide down by 90 points from there and close very near to the day's low. Our trading plan (a) got executed to perfection on that day. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open again with a negative gap down, but as discussed in our weekly review, there are many supports at these levels between 4720 and 4780, where the fall could get arrested.

1) The Elder Ray Readings : Bull Power reduces from +4 to -5 Bear Power rises from -62 to -99, indicating that the Bears now have the control over the Nifty and that the Bearish mood is likely to persist for a while. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4915 to regain their lost territory, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4810 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that there is some more room for the fall on Nifty.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have again fallen during the fall on the Nifty, indicating that the fall may get arrested soon. The MACD as indicated on Friday, has started falling again and the histogram has also started falling. The ADX is also indicating a bias to the down move, but is also indicating a loss in momentum. The Parabolic SAR, as suggested on Friday, has turned from Buy into a Sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 4780, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4840. We will add to these long positions only above 4870.

b) Below 4840, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4865 and a target of 4780. We will add to these short positions only below 4760.

Happy Trading !!! 

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