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Friday 15 June 2012

Nifty - 15 Jun 2012 - Critically poised Nifty

As the Nifty returns back to the trading channel, today could be the trend setting day.


As discussed yesterday, "Nifty paused its uptrend" and the Bulls were not able to overcome the previous day's high and thereafter the Bears could breach the previous day's low and close the Nifty in the red. Although this looks as a pause at the moment, it could be the restart of the downtrend as well. Follow up action would confirm this by end of day today.

In the volatility of yesterday, our "Short plan" did not trigger, and our "Long plan" hit the SL after triggering.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +133 to +112 Bear Power rises from +84 to +30, indicating that the Bears are now in striking distance of safety, but without follow up it could be a case of "So near, yet so far" for them. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5150 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5025 to return back to safe zone.

2) The Nifty is again above all its key EMAs but below all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics remain in the overbought zone, but are now pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above charts, the volumes have depleted in yesterday's downfall on the Nifty, indicating that the fall may be dicey. The MACD has started falling from the positive zone, indicating a impending down fall on the Nifty. The ADX is suggesting a slight strengthening of the down move, but the overall momentum indicator remains low. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with a SL of just below 4900.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5010, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4990 and a target of 5080 and then 5110. We will add to these long positions only above 5130.

b) Around 5115, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5130 and a target of 5030. We will add to these short positions only below 4990.

Happy Trading !!! 

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