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Friday 22 June 2012

Nifty - 22 Jun 2012 - Volatile end to the week

Amidst weak global cues and strong bulls locally, the volatility is all set to rise.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty kept on "waiting for direction" for almost the entire morning session, and kept on trading in a narrow range of about 25 points. A decisive move by the Bulls came in the last hour of trade, and our trading plan (a) got executed to perfection at that time. Today, given the global cues, we might get a negative gap down opening. We consider this as another buying opportunity as of now, unless we are proven otherwise.

 1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +83 to +96 Bear Power also rises from +42 to +20, indicating that although the Bears have risen in power, the Bulls are in a much stronger position. For today, the Bulls need to surpass the Nifty above 5190 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to trade above all its key EMAs and its 50 and 200 DMA. However, it is below its 100DMA which is currently at 5198.

3) The stochastics are once again well and deeply in the overbought zone and are still pointing upwards, confirming the Bullish stance on the Nifty.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes keep on rising with the rise in the Nifty, indicating the strength of the Bullish trend. The MACD is again rising, and the ADX is now suggesting a gain of momentum to the up move. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold onto its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5120, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5090 and a target of 5185. We will add to these long positions only above 5220.

b) Around 5210, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5220 and a target of 5145. We will add to these short positions only below 5090.

Happy Trading !!! 

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