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Tuesday 26 June 2012

Nifty - 26 Jun 2012 - Range bound Bullish undertones

In spite of yesterday's fall, the Nifty remains Bullish as long as 5065 holds.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained range-bound for most of the trading session, except in the last hour when it sold off. Even at the end of the sell-off, the Bears were unable to breach the previous day's low, which indicates the strength of the Bulls. As the Nifty opened with a positive gap and rushed into the resistance zone, our plan (b) got triggered and missed the target by just 5 points. We were, of course, pleased to mop up a profit of 70 points by the end of the day. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty may open with a gap down.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +76 to +106 Bear Power reduces from +10 to +17, indicating that the Bears have actually lost strength despite yesterday's fall. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5200 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5090 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above its key EMAs and its 50 and 100 DMA. The 50 DMA at 5064 may offer much needed support to the Nifty.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone, but are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased in yesterday's fall indicating the bullish undertones on the Nifty. The MACD histogram is falling indicating a weakening up-move. The ADX is suggesting a strong momentum for the up-move. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold out its buy signal. However, it is very near to its turnaround point of 5094.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5065, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5045 and a target of 5145. We will add to these long positions only above 5185. 

b) Around 5165, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5185 and a target of 5080. We will add to these short positions only below 5045.

Happy Trading !!! 

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