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Monday 9 July 2012

Nifty - 09 Jul 2012 - Bulls show signs of weakening

Amidst a series on narrow ranged trading sessions, Bulls look weak after a long time.

As discussed on Friday, there were "Roadblocks ahead", that needed to be jumped over, but the Nifty was not able to even cross the previous day's high. However, in yet another narrow ranged trading session, the Bears were able to breach the previous day's low. As per our rules of trend identification, these are first signs of weakness appearing at the top.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +123 to +102 Bear Power rises from +79 to +62 indicating that silently, the Bears have been creeping in for the past 5 sessions now, and that the Bulls need to keep their vigil. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5345 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5240 to regain their lost territory.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain well and deeply into the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes keep on reducing with the stagnation in the Nifty, indicating nervousness at higher levels. The MACD continues in its rise, indicating the strong grip of the Bulls over the Nifty. The ADX is suggesting a further weakening of the momentum for the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold out its Buy signal with a turnaround at 5259.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5280, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5260 and a target of 5340. We will add to these long positions only above 5375.

b) Around 5345, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5375 and a target of 5285. We will add to these short positions only below 5260.

Happy Trading !!! 

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