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Monday 16 July 2012

Nifty - 16 Jul 2012 - Rangebound volatility to unfold

With technicals turning down and globals pointing up, Nifty may turn volatile.

As discussed in our Friday's post "Volatility may rise now", we saw the Nifty gyrate between 5270 and 5215 wildly. The Bulls were able to overcome the previous day's high and the Bears were able to breach the previous day's low, which is a typical indication of in-built intraday volatility. This range of volatility may rise yet again if the market tends to remain indecisive.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from +8 to +17 Bear Power reduces from -36 to -33 indicating that both the Bulls and Bears are equidistant and safe in their own territories, which could induce increased volatility. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5265 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5205 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and 13EMA, however it is above its 21EMA and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted with the Nifty falling slightly, indicating that the move might be turning downwards now. The MACD has given a negative crossover, with the histogram also turning negative. The ADX is suggesting a lowering of the momentum and that the Nifty may remain range-bound. The Parabolic SAR is continuing to hold out its Sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5260 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5285 and a target of 5210. We will add to these short positions only below 5170.

b) Around 5190 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5170 and a target of 5245. We will add to these long positions only above 5285.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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