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Friday 27 July 2012

Nifty - 27 Jul 2012 - Cautious start to a fresh series

With weak technicals and strong global cues, the Nifty is poised precariously.

As discussed yesterday, we saw a "Volatile Expiry" for the July series, with the Nifty opening with a positive gap up, and almost immediately giving up all the gains and trading in a narrow range for almost the entire trading session, before tanking 66 points in the last hour. Today, it is a start to a fresh series, and the global cues are pretty positive to ensure a gap up opening.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -67 to -41 Bear Power also rises from -112 to -135 indicating that although the Bulls have gained, they are not yet in their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5150 on the Nifty to regain their lost grounds, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5010 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is now trading below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are well and deeply in the oversold zone.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with yesterday's fall in the Nifty suggesting that the downtrend is likely to continue further. The MACD also continues to fall, with the Histogram touching a new bottom. The ADX is also suggesting a rising momentum for the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold its sell signal with a SL at 5195 now.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5090, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5115 and a target of 5010. We will add to these short positions only below 4970.

b) Around 5000, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4975 and a target of 5070. We will add to these long positions only above 5115.

Happy Trading !!! 

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