AD Code

Friday 3 August 2012

Nifty - 03 Aug 2012 - Sell on rise continues

Amidst contracting range and falling volumes, Nifty ready to start a down-move.

As discussed yesterday, "Nifty peaking out", we saw the Nifty open with a mild gap down and then trade the entire day within a small trading range with extremely low volumes. As the Nifty was not able to overcome the previous day's high, this becomes the first indication of a weakness creeping in the Nifty. Will the Bears have enough momentum going with them to challenge the weekly open and low of 5130? 

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +63 to +48 Bear Power rises from +30 to +20, indicating the weakness in Bears. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5250 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5190 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty is trading above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs, indicating the strength of the Bulls.

3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are threatening of a bearish crossover.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have become extremely low with the Nifty remaining in a tight range, indicating indecision at the top of the chart. The MACD is starting to flatten out, indicating lack of momentum for the up-move. The ADX is also suggesting drop in the momentum and equilibrium in the bullish and the bearish trend. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now pegged at 5057.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 5225, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5245 and a target of 5175. We will add to these short positions only below 5155.

b) Around 5165, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5155 and a target of 5225. We will add to these long positions only above 5250.

Happy Trading !!! 

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