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Monday 3 September 2012

Nifty - 03 Sep 2012 - Bears gain momentum

Bears have gained momentum, but still need to do more to gain control on Nifty.

As discussed yesterday, the series started with a trading mode, giving traders a chance to buy on dips as well as sell on rise. However, by the end of day, the bears gained some momentum, and the Nifty closed lower with a loss of 57 points. This trading mode setup seems to continue even today, if the Bears are not able to stamp their control and close the Nifty below 5200.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +5 to -24 Bear Power rises from -83 to -89 indicating that the Bulls are out of their safe zone after a long time and may strike back given a small chance. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5320 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5225 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has again closed below all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs, confirming the trading mode.

3) The stochastics are again in the oversold zone and are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes remain above average with the Nifty coming down, indicating that the down-move may sustain. The MACD is in the positive and is falling confirming the downtrend. The MACD histogram is also in the negative. The ADX is showing a bias towards the Bears, with a mildly rising momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now pegged at 5413.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 5280, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5305 and a target of 5225. We will add to these short positions only below 5210.

b) Around 5220, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5210 and a target of 5260. We will add to these long positions only above 5305.

Happy Trading !!! 

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