AD Code

Wednesday 5 September 2012

Nifty - 05 Sep 2012 - Sell on rise still

With the Nifty still below key EMAs, it is still sell on rise. Trading mode continues.

As discussed yesterday, the trading mode continued on the Nifty, with the Nifty gyrating in a 45 point range. However, considering that the previous day's low was breached and the previous day's high was not, the Nifty is still under the spell of the Bears. So, in-spite of the mildly positive close yesterday, we would still look out for opportunities to open short positions at higher levels.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -21 to -32 Bear Power rises from -73 to -77, indicating that the Bears are gradually gaining momentum. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5310 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5220 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs. The 50DMA at 5263 is the critical level to watch out for.

3) The stochastics are still in the oversold zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have not increased with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that this up move may not sustain for long. The MACD continues to fall, and the histogram continues to be in the negative. The ADX is indicating a expansion of the trading range with a bias towards the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now pegged at 5379.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5300, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5315 and a target of 5240. We will add to these short positions only below 5225.

b) Around 5235, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5225 and a target of 5275. We will add to these long positions only above 5315.

Happy Trading !!! 

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