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Thursday 27 September 2012

Nifty - 27 Sep 2012 - Expiry Jitters

On a day of series expiry, the Nifty may end consolidation with high volatility.

As discussed yesterday, we were near the end of consolidation and the Nifty after a weak opening and dipping just below 5640, clawed back to a slightly higher level than the opening mark and closed at 5663. Our trading plan(a) got triggered and we were able to book a humble profit of 30 points by the end of the trading session.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +162 to +115 Bear Power rises from +112 to +81 indicating that the Bears have still a stiff task at their hands. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5705 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5560 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics also continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the narrow movement in the Nifty, indicating caution before expiry day. The MACD continues to rise with the histogram indicating a weakening of the up move. The ADX is also indicating a weakening of the momentum but is still favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal with a SL of 5592.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5630 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5610 and a target of 5680. We will add to these long positions only above 5720.

b) Around 5700 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5720 and a target of 5650. We will add to these short positions only below 5610.

Happy Trading !!!

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