AD Code

Thursday 11 October 2012

Nifty - 11 Oct 2012 - Rangebound volatility to continue

The Bears are gaining strength, the Nifty is at crucial supports. Expect volatility.


As discussed yesterday, we saw a volatile day on the trading bourses yesterday. The Nifty gyrated wildly within a 25 point range after opening 33 points lower and closing with a loss of 52 points. Our trading plan (a) got triggered at the opening of the market and we were able to book a minor profit of 20 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +58 to +19 Bear Power rises from +7 to -21 indicating that the Bears have now regained their lost grounds and both the Bears and the Bulls are equidistant in their respective zones. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5695 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5640 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and 13EMA but is above its 21EMA (5618) and is also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone, indicating that the Bulls are still holding the upper hand.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that a short term bottom may be in the making now. The MACD has turned negative with the histogram also turning negative, indicating that the down move may continue for a while. The ADX is also suggesting that the momentum for the up move is reducing and that the momentum for the down move is increasing. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5779.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5705 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5730 and a target of 5650. We will add to these short positions only below 5620.

b) Around 5630 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5620 and a target of 5680. We will add to these long positions only above 5730.

Happy Trading !!! 

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