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Tuesday 16 October 2012

Nifty - 16 Oct 2012 - Breakout or Breakdown ?

Nifty has been consolidating for the past 6 days. Big move is now expected.

As discussed yesterday, we saw the balancing act on the Nifty between the Bulls and the Bears. The Nifty opened flat and then gyrated within a 40 point range for the entire trading session before closing at 5687 with a minor gain of 11 points. Now after a nice consolidation, the big move may be just round the corner. We need to watch out for 5640 on the downside and 5740 on the upside.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +51 to +18 Bear Power rises from -15 to -25 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now having equal control on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5705 to retain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 5645 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5690) but has closed above its 13 and 21 EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the stagnation in Nifty indicating lack of participation by traders. The MACD continues to fall with the histogram being in the negative. The ADX continues to suggest a diminishing momentum for both the Bulls and the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5726.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5665 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5640 and a target of 5715. We will add to these long positions only above 5730.

b) Around 5720 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5730 and a target of 5670. We will add to these short positions only below 5640.

Happy Trading !!!  

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