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Friday 2 November 2012

Nifty - 02 Nov 2012 - Bulls need follow up

With 2 successive green days, Bulls have stopped the downfall. Must follow up now.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened, traded and closed right within the range that could be said to define the trading mode range. The Nifty opened with a 10 point gap down, but never looked like going down right from the go and finally closed near the top of the trading channel, just below the cluster of resistances formed by the key EMAs. Our plan (b) got triggered, but did neither reach its target nor its SL, and we were able to book out with a small 10 point profit.

"Beware of the whipsaw" will be our mantra for the day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -38 to -10 Bear Power reduces from -80 to -58 indicating that the Bulls are not out of the woods yet and only a follow up of buying at higher prices would help them out. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5665 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5595 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are just out of the oversold zone and are pointing upwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant with the rise in the Nifty, indicating lack of conviction in the up move as of now. The MACD is continuing to fall with the histogram continuing to remain in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a fall in the momentum, with the Bulls and Bears being in equilibrium. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5680 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5695 and a target of 5630. We will add to these short positions only below 5595.

b) Around 5615 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5595 and a target of 5665. We will add to these long positions only above 5695.

Happy Trading !!!      

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