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Friday 14 December 2012

Nifty - 14 Dec 2012 - Bears get a look in

Bears just got a look in yesterday. Bulls need to close the week above 5800.

As discussed yesterday, we had said that the Bulls were weak, and that is what it turned out to be. The Nifty after opening with a positive gap of 12 points, made a intra-day high initially and then sold off to breach previous day's low and close at 5852 with a loss of 37 points. In this process, the Bears have recovered all their lost grounds. However, the weekly trend is still up and Bulls need to show some mettle to close the week still in their favor.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +82 to +64 Bear Power rises from +32 to -3 indicating that the Bears are now in their own territory and need some more work to retain that status. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5910 to retain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5835 to retain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA (5872) but above its 13EMA and its 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now just out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart the volumes have not risen with the fall in the Nifty indicating that a temporary bottom may be nearby now. The MACD is declining but has not triggered a downtrend yet. The MACD histogram is reducing but still is in the positive. The ADX is showing a decline for the Bulls, but is still favoring them. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal with a SL at 5841.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5885 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5905 and a target of 5815. We will add to these short positions only below 5800.

b) Around 5820 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5800 and a target of 5865. We will add to these long positions only above 5905.

Happy Trading !!! 

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