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Tuesday 18 December 2012

Nifty - 18 Dec 2012 - Nifty maintains equilibrium

Bulls & Bears maintain a cautious equilibrium on the eve of the RBI Policy.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty exhibited all nuances of being in the trading mode.  After opening with a negative gap of 20 points, the Nifty traded within a range of 36 points for the entire session, without breaching either the previous day's high or the previous day's low. Finally, the Nifty closed with a loss of 22 points. None of our trading plans were triggered, and we were happy sitting on the sidelines.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +37 to +36 Bear Power also reduces from -10 to 0 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears have maintained a cautious view and have protected their positions. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5890 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5845 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA (5870). However, the Nifty has closed above its 13EMA and its 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are hovering just below the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with a minimal movement in the Nifty indicating caution on parts of the participants. The MACD is just about to trigger a Sell call, however, it has not triggered yet. The Histogram, although diminishing, is still in the positive. The ADX is showing a loss of momentum for both the Bulls and the Bears, but is favoring the Bulls as of now. The Parabolic SAR is giving out a sell signal with a SL of 5963.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5890 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5910 and a target of 5840. We will add to these short positions only below 5805.

b) Around 5835 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5805 and a target of 5870. We will add to these long positions only above 5910.

Happy Trading !!!    

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