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Friday 28 December 2012

Nifty - 28 Dec 2012 - Volatile year end

Nifty poised for a volatile session at the end of week, month and year.

As discussed yesterday, it turned out to be a battle for 5900 on the bourses. The Nifty after opening near the suggested resistances, sold off to touch just below 5900 and then gyrated around that mark for almost the entire trading session, when just in the last hour, the Bears took hold and the Nifty touched 5865 before closing at 5870.  

Although the session would seem to be Bearish by and large, it should be noted that the Bulls overcame the previous day's highs while the Bears could not breach the previous day's lows.

Our trading plan (b) missed out to trigger by a whisker, and reached its target. Our trading plan (a) also triggered, but it was too late to enter the trade by then.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +44 to +58 Bear Power reduces from -14 to -9. indicating that both the Bulls and Bears are now ready for an intense battle. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5935 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5860 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and its 13EMA, however it has closed above its 21EMA (5850) and has also closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that this fall can continue. The MACD continues with its negative indications. The ADX on the contrary is suggesting a rise in the upwards momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL of 5931.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5835 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5820 and a target of 5885. We will add to these long positions only above 5915.

b) Around 5900 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5915 and a target of 5855. We will add to these short positions only below 5820.

Happy Trading !!!    

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