Bears rule on expiry day, aided by a non-event Budget. Caution in shorts needed.
As discussed yesterday, we say "Budget day blues" on the trading screen. The Nifty opened at 5834 with a 40 point positive gap, right into our suggested resistance band. Then made a swift high of 5850 and remained subdued from thereon till the end of the budget speech, when the Bears took over, and swept past 5750, our suggested support zone, even to breach the psychological level of 5700, to make a low of 5672 before closing at 5693 with a whopping loss of 104 points.
At this point, we need to remind ourselves, our analysis yesterday morning.
Nifty poised bearishly on Budget day. Any rally now, could be short lived.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -55 to +3 Bear Power also rises from -123 to -175 indicating that the Bears have overstretched the Nifty so low that the averages have also gone so down, that the Bulls have managed to regain lost grounds on the virtue of the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5820 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty remains below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and its 100DMA. However, it is above its 200DMA.
3) The stochastics are in extremely oversold zone and are yet pointing downwards.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have doubled almost, with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that more downward moves may be on their way. The MACD continues to grow on the negative side. The ADX is suggesting a rise in momentum, favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now pegged at 5913.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5660, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5630 and a target of 5725. We will add to these long positions only above 5745.
b) Around 5730, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5745 and a target of 5675. We will add to these short positions only below 5630.
Happy Trading !!!
Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
As discussed yesterday, we say "Budget day blues" on the trading screen. The Nifty opened at 5834 with a 40 point positive gap, right into our suggested resistance band. Then made a swift high of 5850 and remained subdued from thereon till the end of the budget speech, when the Bears took over, and swept past 5750, our suggested support zone, even to breach the psychological level of 5700, to make a low of 5672 before closing at 5693 with a whopping loss of 104 points.
At this point, we need to remind ourselves, our analysis yesterday morning.
Nifty poised bearishly on Budget day. Any rally now, could be short lived.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -55 to +3 Bear Power also rises from -123 to -175 indicating that the Bears have overstretched the Nifty so low that the averages have also gone so down, that the Bulls have managed to regain lost grounds on the virtue of the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5820 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5650 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty remains below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and its 100DMA. However, it is above its 200DMA.
3) The stochastics are in extremely oversold zone and are yet pointing downwards.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have doubled almost, with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that more downward moves may be on their way. The MACD continues to grow on the negative side. The ADX is suggesting a rise in momentum, favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now pegged at 5913.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5660, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5630 and a target of 5725. We will add to these long positions only above 5745.
b) Around 5730, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5745 and a target of 5675. We will add to these short positions only below 5630.
Happy Trading !!!
Also visit Just Nifty and the Nifty Range blogs.
For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE
Bears not able to breach yesterday's low of 5772. Reminding our selves that caution needed in short positions now.
ReplyDeleteNifty hits target of trading plan (a) without triggering the entry.
ReplyDeleteOpened fresh short at 5730 as per trading plan (b) with a SL of 5745
ReplyDeleteMoved TSL to 5715 now. Shorted at 5730
ReplyDeleteTSL hit at 5715. Booked profit of 15 points.
ReplyDelete