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Thursday 14 March 2013

Nifty - 14 Mar 2013 - Still in equilibrium

Nifty loses much of the gains, returns to middle of trading zone, equilibrium stays.

As discussed in yesterday's post "Nifty enters consolidation phase", we saw the Bullish up move pause and the Bears regain their footing. The Nifty opened with a 29 point gap down and never recovered those losses. The Nifty then drifted listlessly for the entire trading session, in a narrow band of 30 points, before getting sold off to make a low of 5842 and closing at 5851, with a loss of 63 points. Our trading plan (a) got triggered and hit the stop loss. We booked out with a loss of 26 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +93 to +36 Bear Power rises from +34 to -16 indicating that the Bears have recovered fully and that now both the Bulls and the Bears share the control over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5895 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5835 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, the Nifty has closed above its 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are now out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have fallen with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may get arrested soon. The MACD continues its positive signal, but indicates a pause, with the Histogram still being in the positive. The ADX is showing equal weightage for either way swings. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with the SL now at 5715.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5890 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5910 and a target of 5845. We will add to these short positions only below 5820.

b) Around 5835 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5820 and a target of 5875. We will add to these long positions only above 5910.

Happy Trading !!!    

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6 comments:

  1. Opened fresh intraday long position at 5812 with a SL of 5792 and a target of 5860. A deviation in trading plan (b) taken here.

    ReplyDelete
  2. SL hit in long position lost 20 points.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sir Google charts showing low of 5792.50 how the sl triggered..... thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. Nifty hits target of plan(b) but just after kissing SL.

    No hassles. A lesson to be learned here.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Now opened fresh short position at 5895 with a SL of 5915 as per trading plan (a)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Got whipsawed again. Booked another 20 point loss.

    ReplyDelete

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