AD Code

Tuesday 26 March 2013

Nifty - 26 Mar 2013 - Downward bias remains

Nifty continues to remain Bearish as we approach series expiry. Sell on rises.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained in consolidation mode for almost the entire morning session. Owing to positive global cues, the Nifty opened with a hefty positive gap of 47 points and traded in the positive terrain for the entire morning session. However, later in the day, as the Bulls were not able to cross the day's high, which incidentally was our identified resistance zone, the Bears took over, and the Nifty got sold off, not only to breach the previous day's lows but to make new intermediate low at 5624 before closing the day at 5634 with a loss of 18 points. We took a short trade as per our trading plan (b) and could book a nice profit of 55 points in the trade.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -87 to -40 Bear Power reduces from -147 to -134 indicating that though the Bulls have recovered somewhat, the Bears are still in the drivers seat. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5740 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5605 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also below its 50DMA and 100DMA. However, it has taken support just above its 200DMA(5621).

3) The stochastics are well and deep into the oversold zone.





4) In the above chart, the volumes have reduced with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may get arrested. The MACD continues to languish in the negative with the histogram also growing in the negative zone. The ADX is suggesting a drop in the downwards momentum and a rise in the upwards momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a SL now at 5909.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.


a) Around 5685 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5705 and a target of 5600. We will add to these short positions only below 5565.

b) Around 5585 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5565 and a target of 5665. We will add to these long positions only above 5705.

Happy Trading !!!      

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