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Wednesday 19 June 2013

Nifty - 19 June 2013 - Negative bias continues

Although Nifty sets in equilibrium, the negative outlook remains in the short term.

On Friday, we has suggested "Sell on rise to continue", and although we took a two day trading holiday, the Nifty has moved as expected and after a two day rise, the decline has commenced, and now the Nifty stands in neutral zone or equilibrium, with a negative bias amidst high volatility.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -16 to +1 Bear Power reduces from -101 to -58 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are in their respective zones with the Bears having a fickle advantage. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5860 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5795 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below all its key EMAs and also closed below its 50DMA and 100DMA but above its 200DMA(5805).

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that the downmove may continue. The MACD is in the negative and also the histogram is in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a favor to the Bears in a market where overall momentum is falling. The Parabolic SAR has turned to a Buy signal with the SL of 5683.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5840 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5865 and a target of 5780. We will add to these short positions only below 5745.

b) Around 5770 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5745 and a target of 5825. We will add to these long positions only above 5865.

Happy Trading !!! 

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Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.