AD Code

Monday 21 May 2012

Nifty - 21 May 2012 - Bearish hold still on

Although the Nifty staged a smart pullback on Friday, the Bearish clutch still holds.

As discussed on Friday, "The Gap Down" came to the aid of bears who were looking almost exhausted by the end of Thursday's trade. However, in spite of this gap down, the Bears were not able to keep the Nifty down, and then the Bulls made a smart pullback, up to almost 4900, but were not able to take the Nifty into a bullish zone. Our plan b, "Above 4770, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4835 and above that 4880." worked almost to perfection on Friday.


1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases only slightly from -76 to -74 Bear Power rises from -148 to -194, indicating that the rally on Friday has very high chances of turning into a eyewash. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4970 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to take the Nifty below 4770 to maintain their momentum.


2) The Nifty continues to trade well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.


3) The Stochastics are still well in the oversold zone.







4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant in Friday's rise. The MACD is in the negative and the Histogram is threatening to rise, indicating that a rally could not be ruled out. However, the ADX is suggesting a strong downtrend, and the Parabolic SAR is continuing to hold out its sell signal.


5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.


a) Below 4925, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4960 and a target of 4820. We will add to these short positions only below 4780.


b) Around 4820, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4790 and a target of 4865 and then 4910. We will add to these long positions only above 4960.


Happy Trading !!!

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