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Thursday 6 September 2012

Nifty - 06 Sep 2012 - Bearish grip tightens

Nifty nearing crucial support zone as the Bears gain control. Trade cautiously.

As discussed yesterday, it was a day of "Sell on rise" as the Nifty opened with a 30 point gap down, and regained a bit in the first 30 minutes of trade. However, selling emerged soon and Nifty broke the support levels of 5230 and went down to 5215 before closing at 5226. The Nifty now is trading near a cluster of crucial supports, from where a bounce back cannot be ruled out. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -32 to -39 Bear Power rises from -77 to -83 indicating the grip of the Bears on the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5290 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5200 on the Nifty to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading below all its key EMAs and below its 50DMA. The 100DMA at 5165 could act as a major support in the short term.

3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone and are pointing downwards.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may sustain as of now. The MACD continues to fall, indicating a downward trend. The ADX is also suggesting strengthening of the downwards momentum. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out a Sell signal with the SL now pegged at 5360.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5245, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5270 and a target of 5195. We will add to these short positions only below 5180.

b) Around 5190, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5250. We will add to these long positions only above 5270.

Happy Trading !!! 

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