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Wednesday 19 December 2012

Nifty - 19 Dec 2012 - Equilibrium continues

Bears break lows, Bulls breach highs, Nifty maintains equilibrium awaiting followup.

In our yesterday's post, we had suggested that "Nifty maintains equilibrium". As such, the Nifty opened with a positive gap of 16 points and then the Bears dragged it down to breach the previous day's lows to 5823, where the Nifty found support and the Bulls then took it away to 5906, overcoming the previous day's highs, before closing at 5897 with a gain of 39 points. Our trading plan (b) got triggered first and it also met its target, giving us a profit of 40 points. Later, our trading plan (a) got triggered. It did not meet the SL, however, we booked out at end of day with a small loss of 5 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +36 to +49 Bear Power also rises from 0 to -34 indicating that the Nifty is still in equilibrium and that one of the sides needs a follow up today. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5915 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5825 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs, indicating that the Bulls are having a upper hand as of now.

3) The stochastics are still just below the overbought zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that the Bears might strike any moment.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty indicating that this up move can sustain. The MACD has triggered on the down side and the histogram has indeed turned negative. The ADX is suggesting a loss of momentum for the up move and a rise in momentum for the down move. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell call with a SL now at 5960.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5930 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5950 and a target of 5875. We will add to these short positions only below 5850.

b) Around 5870 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5850 and a target of 5920. We will add to these long positions only above 5950.

Happy Trading !!!      

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